Kabu Japan
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Kabu Japan Notes
Kabu Japan is a newsletter focused on Japanese equities. We provide independent, insightful analysis of Japan's stock market, highlighting opportunities across large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap companies.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I may hold positions in securities mentioned. Investing involves risk, including currency fluctuations and market volatility. Please conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
Latest ArticleKabu Japan · Sep 20, 2026
Japan's Electricity Bottleneck
This week's note argues that Japan's utilities are compelling infrastructure plays, not merely leveraged bond proxies, as regulated investment in grid modernization and returning nuclear generation creates a structural earnings tailwind. National electricity demand is projected to rise from 803 TWh to 846 TWh by 2035, driven by data centers and semiconductor fabs — TEPCO Power Grid alone already holds 15.2GW of data-center connection applications. Eight network operators received a combined ¥884.5 billion in mid-period revenue increases approved on 4 September 2026 (TEPCO Power Grid alone at ¥251.6 billion), part of a roughly ¥7 trillion decade-long interregional grid reinforcement programme. Under the revenue-cap framework introduced in April 2023, those investment costs feed directly into regulated revenue, turning capex into an earnings annuity rather than a drag. Layered on top is a wave of nuclear restarts: Kansai now has seven reactors operating, Kyushu four, and Onagawa 2, Shimane 2 and Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Unit 6 have all come back online this year, while physical constraints on transformers and skilled labour should protect margins through the build-out.
Read the full analysis on Kabu JapanDisclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I may hold positions in securities mentioned. Investing involves risk, including currency fluctuations and market volatility. Please conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
Archive
Sep 20, 2026Japan's Electricity BottleneckJapanese utilities are priced like bond proxies, but grid modernization, data-center demand and nuclear restarts point to a structural earnings tailwind instead.Sep 13, 2026Japan's Shipbuilding Revival: Follow the EnginesJapan's ¥1 trillion push to double shipbuilding capacity by 2035 favors the equipment suppliers behind the yards over the already-rerated yards themselves.Sep 7, 2026Is SPARX Group Becoming Japan's Premier Alternatives Platform?SPARX Group's push into alternatives is less about record AUM and more about the fee durability behind it, as Japan's capital markets modernize.Sep 6, 2026Japan: The Developmental State Goes DigitalRising BOJ rates needn't mean capital flight — Japan's push into stablecoins and tokenized deposits could unlock its ¥2.386 quadrillion of household assets instead.Sep 1, 2026Taiyo Yuden: The High-Beta Bet on Downstream AIAs AI servers grow more electrically complex, capacitor demand is set to triple by 2030 — and Taiyo Yuden offers more leverage to that cycle than market leader Murata.Aug 28, 2026Japan: The Quiet Technology RevolutionJapan's telecoms are turning decades of patient R&D into AI infrastructure plays — a slower, sturdier model than Silicon Valley's.Aug 21, 2026Japan's Suncall: What It's Telling Us About the AI CycleAs the AI bottleneck shifts from compute to data transmission, Suncall's pivot from HDD components to optical communications stands out.Aug 20, 2026Japan's New Capital Allocation RegimeJapan is shifting from shareholder-return activism to a state-directed capital regime steering money into strategic industries.Aug 17, 2026Honda: Is the Market Getting the Story Wrong?Honda's EV losses dominate the narrative, but its 40%-share, 20%-margin motorcycle business may be the underappreciated story.Aug 14, 2026Japan's Next Xero?freee's accelerating ARR and shrinking churn echo the early playbook that turned Xero into an ASX compounder.Aug 13, 2026The Next AI Winners May Be Much SmallerMicronics Japan's doubled profit and 87% guidance hike show why niche AI semiconductor suppliers can outrun expensive-looking valuations.Aug 12, 2026What Has Nintendo Got in Common With JREITs?Rising rents at Tokyo offices and residential REITs may be outpacing financing costs, making J-REITs an overlooked opportunity.Aug 11, 2026Ignore Nvidia!Nippon Chemical's 60% capacity expansion in high-purity red phosphorus signals AI infrastructure demand will outlast the hype cycle.Aug 10, 2026The Week Ahead in Japanese EquitiesSK Hynix's $38bn fab investment signals the HBM bottleneck is still expanding, favouring Japan Electronic Materials and Naitoh Tech.Aug 9, 2026Japanese Insurers Are Not AIGBond losses at Japan's life insurers are real, but comparisons to AIG's 2008 solvency crisis are overblown.Aug 5, 2026Japan's Machinery Sector UpdateMISUMI and KITZ stand to benefit as the AI investment cycle extends into physical infrastructure and machinery.Aug 4, 20267826 Furuya Metals: A Good Risk Reward?Furuya Metal's role as a hidden bottleneck supplier in the AI hardware stack makes it a compelling risk-reward play.Aug 3, 2026The Week Ahead in Japanese EquitiesCorporate Japan is shedding its defensive era, reinvesting boldly as this week's earnings reinforce the shift.Aug 1, 20267004 JP Kanadevia: A Decarbonization WinnerKanadevia's hydrogen-DRI breakthrough and exposure to decarbonization make it an underpriced recovery story.Jul 31, 2026Thinking Differently: What About 2121 JP Mixi?As crowded growth trades get expensive, Mixi's undervalued gaming and social media assets deserve a fresh look.Jul 31, 2026A Rebound in Overlooked Japanese Small Cap Technology Names?Anritsu's results signal a rebound in semiconductor and measurement demand among overlooked small-cap tech names.Jul 30, 2026Hitachi's Second TransformationHitachi's shift from conglomerate to infrastructure pure-play could earn it a premium rating instead of a discount.Jul 28, 20266702 Fujitsu: The Overlooked AI Infrastructure PlayFujitsu's IOWN optical technology positions it as an overlooked winner in the global AI infrastructure buildout.Jul 27, 2026CXMT's Blockbuster IPO Rewires the Semiconductor RaceChina's CXMT memory-chip IPO reshapes the global semiconductor race, with ripple effects across Japan's supply chain.Jul 22, 2026Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: An AI Power Infrastructure PlaySurging AI power demand makes Mitsubishi Heavy Industries a compelling, underappreciated infrastructure play.Jul 21, 2026The Next Strategic Resource Cycle: FoodMitsubishi Corp's latest move signals food security emerging as the next strategic resource cycle for investors.Jul 20, 2026Looking Past the IPO: Is (556A) Inuneko-Seikatsu Mispriced?Beyond its cute IPO branding, Inuneko-Seikatsu (556A) may be mispriced relative to its underlying pet-care business.Jul 19, 2026The Return of Japan's Industrial StateJapan's industrial policy revival is reshaping which sectors and stocks deserve a place in investor portfolios.Jul 17, 2026Japan's Consumer Pricing RevolutionJapanese consumer companies are turning decades of deflation survival into a new era of pricing power and growth.Jul 15, 2026Finding the Next Suzuki: Japan's Hidden Winners from India's Growth CycleIndia's growth cycle points to hidden Japanese industrial winners, echoing Suzuki's earlier success there.Jul 14, 2026From Soup to Semis: Owning the 2802 JP Ajinomoto Compounding MachineAjinomoto's move from seasonings into semiconductor materials makes it a quiet, compounding growth story.Jul 13, 2026OBIC (4684): Sold Like SaaS, Built Like a FortressOBIC trades like a typical SaaS name but its fortress balance sheet and margins set it apart from the pack.Jul 8, 2026AI Started the Nuclear Revival. Energy Security Makes It Structural.AI-driven power demand sparked Japan's nuclear revival, and energy security is making that shift structural.Jul 7, 2026AI Supercycle: Four More Japanese Companies Set to WinFour more Japanese companies stand to benefit as the global AI supercycle broadens beyond the usual names.Jul 3, 2026Capital Allocation and the Japanese HomebuildersJapan's homebuilders are quietly improving capital allocation, a shift that could re-rate the sector over time.Jul 2, 20267912 Dai Nippon Printing: Is the Valuation Still Too Low?Dai Nippon Printing's transformation may not yet be reflected in its still-low valuation.Jul 1, 2026Tokyo Electron UpdateKey takeaways from an analyst briefing on Tokyo Electron's outlook across the semiconductor equipment cycle.Jun 30, 2026Shibaura Machine: The Recovery Story Nobody Is Talking AboutShibaura Machine's recovery, based on a Tachibana Securities report, remains an overlooked story in the market.Jun 29, 2026The Re-Rating of Japan: From Domestic Compounders to Global PlatformsJapan's re-rating is shifting focus from domestic compounders toward globally scalable platform businesses.Jun 26, 2026Sony: A Play on Japan's Global IP StorySony stands out as the clearest way to invest in Japan's growing global entertainment and IP content boom.Jun 23, 2026Japan Real Estate RevitalizationJapan's real estate revitalization is a market theme investors have largely overlooked until now.Jun 19, 2026Toyota (7203): The Company Japan Just Forgot AboutDespite its scale, Toyota has become an overlooked name, with the market seemingly forgetting about the stock.Jun 18, 2026Murata: The AI Infrastructure Trade Still Has LegsMurata (6981 JP) shows why its recent re-rating still has room to run within the broader AI infrastructure trade.Jun 16, 2026Asahi Glass: The Next Micron?Asahi Glass's specialty materials position it as an overlooked potential winner of the memory chip cycle.Jun 15, 2026Canon: The Next ASML?Canon's lithography and precision optics expertise could make it Japan's answer to ASML in chip equipment.Jun 5, 2026The Koreanisation of Japan's Retail InvestorAs Japanese retail investors trade more actively like their Korean peers, JPX may be the ultimate beneficiary.Jun 4, 2026Japan: The Moats That Create the Perfect Laggard Trade for Foreign CapitalDurable competitive moats make certain unloved Japanese laggards an attractive entry point for foreign capital.Jun 3, 2026Fujimi: Another Hidden Linchpin of the Semiconductor BoomFujimi's ultra-precision polishing slurries make it a hidden linchpin of the advanced semiconductor supply chain.Jun 2, 2026Nomura Micro Sciences: The Plumbing Behind Artificial IntelligenceNomura Micro Science's ultrapure water systems make it a quiet, overlooked supplier behind AI chip production.Jun 1, 2026The AI Storage Bottleneck Nobody Is Talking About: NHK SpringNHK Spring's components inside storage drives make it an overlooked play on the world's AI data boom.May 30, 2026The Inventory Moat: Playing Japan's Circular EconomyTreasure Factory (3093 JP) shows how Japan's circular economy and resale market build a durable inventory moat.May 27, 2026What's Up with Japanese Content Stocks?Japanese content stocks have run hard, but the best of this entertainment and IP cycle may still be ahead.Apr 29, 2026Japanese Construction Stocks: Boom TimesJapan's construction sector is entering boom times, offering exposure to a re-accelerating building cycle.Apr 28, 2026Japanese Steel: The Last Sector That Hasn't MovedWhile much of the Japanese market has re-rated, steel remains the last major sector still lagging behind.Apr 23, 2026Japan's Labor Market: The $5.5 Billion SignalRising job-switching and wages in Japan's labor market are sending a $5.5 billion signal worth watching closely.Apr 19, 2026Japan's Golden Age of ActivismActivist investing is entering a golden age in Japan, with Elliott's playbook offering a template to follow.Apr 8, 2026Japan's Regional Banks: No Longer Value TrapsA new framework suggests Japan's regional banks have shed their old reputation as perennial value traps.Mar 15, 2026Kabu Japan Weekly: From Tragedy to OpportunityThis week's note looks at how turbulent moments in Japan can turn into some of the market's best opportunities.Mar 9, 2026Kabu Japan Weekly: Japan's Aerospace Materials MoatJapan's aerospace materials suppliers hold a quiet but durable moat few investors have fully appreciated.Feb 23, 2026Kabu Japan Weekly: Japan RewiresJapan's nuclear restart and AI infrastructure push is rewiring the investment opportunity set.Feb 15, 2026Kabu Japan Weekly: What 316 Seats Actually BuyA commanding parliamentary majority gives Japan's leadership room to back national champions and growth.Feb 8, 2026Kabu Japan Weekly: The Hidden Infrastructure PlayA little-discussed substrate bottleneck is emerging as a hidden but critical AI infrastructure play in Japan.Feb 1, 2026Kabu Japan Weekly: Japan's Hidden Infrastructure AdvantageJapan's textile trade shows how mastering repetitive craft can become a hidden infrastructure advantage.Jan 25, 2026Kabu Japan Weekly: Japan's Stress TestBond market pressure is putting Japan through a real stress test, with implications across equities and policy.Jan 18, 2026Kabu Japan: Japanese Equity Market WeeklyA weekly look across Japan's equity market, balancing near-term action with a longer-term investment vision.
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